kairos.pmPolymarket V2 · Arc
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LIVE-Pipeline armed - awaiting next run

The AI reads the market.You decide. The chain holds proof.

Kairos PM is a signal-first AI execution terminal for Polymarket V2. Every trade intent ships with a full reasoning trace, pinned to IPFS and anchored on Arc. Signal-first by default - the AI reasons, you click execute.

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Traces anchored on Arc-Pinned to IPFS-Builder fee on every fill-Agora Agents Hackathon 2026
Live signal

The latest trace, right now.

Every inference is public. Every reasoning artifact is permanent.

GENERALPOLYMARKET
ANCHORED · BUY NO @ $0.88

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Resolves May 26, 2026 - 0 days
SIDEBUY NO@ <= $0.88
SIZE$250USDC
CONFIDENCE0.8282%
KELLY0.2525%
MODEL: CLAUDE-SONNET-4-6 - GPT-5.4-MINI RETRIEVAL - 4 SOURCES
A permanent US-Iran peace deal by May 26, 2026 is extremely unlikely given deep structural antagonism, ongoing nuclear tensions, and lack of historical precedent.
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IIAEA· IAEA reports on Iran nuclear activitiesCCouncil on Foreign Relations· U.S.-Iran Relations TimelineAArms Control Association· Timeline of Nuclear Diplomacy With IranUU.S. Department of State· U.S. Relations With Iran
ANCHORED ON ARC0xdfb2...c475
CIDQmWmYY...CKNT
BUILDERKAIROS...
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GENERALANCHORED · BUY NO @ $0.90
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
BUY NO @ $0.90CONF 0.85
GENERALANCHORED · BUY NO @ $0.92
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
BUY NO @ $0.92CONF 0.75
GENERALANCHORED · BUY NO @ $0.93
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
BUY NO @ $0.93CONF 0.75
How it works

From market to anchored trace in under 4 seconds.

01Market scanKairos continuously monitors Polymarket V2 for markets with a measurable edge — thin spreads between prediction prices and derivative-implied probabilities.Claude Sonnet 4.6
02Reasoning traceThe model retrieves canonical sources, reasons through the evidence, assigns a confidence score, and outputs a validated TradeIntent JSON with a Kelly fraction.gpt-5.4-mini retrieval
03Anchor on ArcThe trace JSON is hashed and anchored on Arc — Circle's stablecoin-native L1. The raw artifact is pinned to IPFS. Both get a permanent URL.Arc · IPFS
04Fill with builder feeYou click execute. The EIP-712 signed order carries our bytes32 builder code. Polymarket V2 pays us a builder fee in USDC on every attributed fill.Polymarket V2 · Privy
Why Kairos

Built for the post-black-box era.

Every existing AI agent hides its reasoning. We took the opposite bet.

Reasoning is the productEvery trade intent ships with a full reasoning trace — sources, confidence, Kelly fraction, model version. Permanently public. No black boxes.
Anchored on ArcThe trace hash is written to Arc in the same block as the order. You can verify the reasoning existed before the trade, not after.
Zero subscriptionsWe earn a builder fee on every attributed fill — a few basis points routed through the EIP-712 signed order. We only get paid when you do.
Content-addressed tracesEvery trace gets a permanent IPFS CID and URL. Share it. Post it. The artifact is designed to survive being passed around.
Signal-first by defaultThe AI reasons and signals. You click execute. Optional auto-execute mode mints a scoped Privy session key with per-order, per-day limits you set.
Geo-aware from day onePolymarket V2 is restricted in 33 countries. Kairos checks your jurisdiction on sign-in and clearly shows what's available to you.
Live metrics - updated every block
25
Traces published
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Fills attributed
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Volume routed
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Builder fees (7d)
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Active users (24h)

A subscription product that hides its reasoning is a faith trade. We don't want to be a faith trade.

Read the full manifesto

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Signal-first · Anchored on Arc · Builder fee on every fill

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