{ "marketId": "0x421bc1929df1429cf2cb94f80c1ce6a3ed0d1f0b7a2749b9890075f94eb549e9", "outcome": "NO", "side": "BUY", "priceLimit": 0.93, "sizeUsdc": 250, "confidence": 0.75, "kellyFraction": 0.25, "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "retrievalModel": "gpt-5.4-mini", "timestamp": "2026-05-25T05:23:26.895Z", "sources": [ "https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-iran-1953-2022", "https://www.state.gov/countries-areas/iran/", "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Timeline-of-Nuclear-Diplomacy-With-Iran" ] }
The market resolves in approximately 1 day (May 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), creating an extremely compressed timeline for a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran. The resolution criteria are stringent: requiring either signed/formally adopted written agreement OR clear public confirmation from both governments that a lasting end to military hostilities has been definitively established. The description references a 'two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026' as an example of what would NOT qualify, suggesting some recent diplomatic activity but explicitly noting temporary measures are insufficient.
Historically, US-Iran relations have been characterized by decades of mutual distrust, sanctions, nuclear program disputes, and proxy conflicts across the Middle East. Even under the most optimistic diplomatic scenarios (such as the JCPOA nuclear deal negotiated in 2015), formal peace treaties took years of negotiations and did not constitute the kind of comprehensive 'permanent peace deal' this market specifies. As of knowledge cutoff in April 2024, tensions remained elevated with Iran's nuclear program advancement, regional proxy activities, and no framework for comprehensive normalization. A permanent peace deal would require resolution of nuclear issues, regional security concerns, sanctions relief, and fundamental strategic realignment—processes that typically require months or years of negotiation, domestic political consensus in both countries, and often legislative/parliamentary approval.
The current market price of 9% appears slightly elevated given the 1-day timeline remaining. Even if intensive secret negotiations were underway, the probability of both governments announcing a definitive permanent peace agreement within 24 hours is exceptionally low. The reference to an April 7, 2026 ceasefire suggests possible de-escalation efforts, but the market explicitly excludes temporary agreements. News searches and official government sources (accessible as of April 2024) show no credible indication of imminent comprehensive peace negotiations. The high 24-hour volume ($12.5M) suggests active speculation, possibly driven by last-minute rumors or manipulation attempts common in binary markets near expiry.
Key risks to this assessment: (1) Secret diplomacy could have progressed far beyond public knowledge, with an announcement timed for the deadline; (2) The market description's reference to a future April 2026 ceasefire suggests I may lack information about 2025-2026 developments; (3) An extremely broad interpretation of 'permanent peace deal' by arbiters could qualify lesser agreements. However, even accounting for information gaps, the probability of meeting the stringent criteria within 1 day remains in low single digits. My point estimate of 3% (range 1-8%) reflects extreme time pressure, historical precedent of lengthy diplomatic processes, and lack of credible reporting suggesting imminent breakthrough.
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